Earlier last week, Mr. Hanson gave a data-packed presentation titled: Coping with Chaos, which he characterized as an ‘Economic Non-Forecast.’ We decided to follow what he referred to as the ‘higher road.’ This is because in Hanson’s own words, “making forecasts and predictions in the current dense fog of known unknowns is a fool’s game.”
Well, Art and I ‘ain’t no fools’ (apologies to Mr. T and the A Team), so our entire economic focus was on what’s happening, why it’s happening, and what we might all do in response to these socio-economic ‘happenings.’ As always, we checked in on the consensus of economists, and based on what they labeled to be “mostly firmer recent readings” a few predictions were offered. Here is what they predicted, highlighted in red, and the actual report shown in bold type:
- Payrolls up 298,000 new jobs…actual was 315,000 new jobs in August
- Unemployment rate flat at 3.5%...actual was 3.7% a modest increase
- Participation rate flat at 62.1%...actual was a good increase up to 62.4%
- Hourly wages will be up 5.3% year-over-year…actual was 5.2% ($27.68/hour)
- …the report will usher in a ‘Third Jumbo Federal Reserve Interest Hike’…stay tuned the committee meets September 20th-21st.
Other Show Happenings
Art and I were joined as guests ‘On The Mark’ by Jason Fink, President & CEO of the Williamsport/Lycoming Chamber of Commerce. Mark Lawrence, host of On The Mark and his co-host Ben Reichley always laser in the on the economic issues facing our entire valley. One such issue is the impact of the recently completed Little League World Series. Once again, this year the greater Williamsport area did a fantastic in welcoming teams from around the United States and the world to our valley.
Mr. Fink, in his Chamber role, is the ringleader for much of the community activity, which happens while the Series is in town. Click Here to listen in to last Friday’s, September 1st, Financial Friday-On The Mark for a Series rundown and for more details our local economy.
So how are we doing?
The so-called ‘known unknowns,’ according to the Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry (workstats.dli.pa.gov.dashboards/Pages/Labor-Stats.aspx) county-by-county report, Greater Susquehanna Valley counties are continuing to be among those with the lowest unemployment rates. Montour (3.2%) unchanged rate still comes in equal with Bucks County at 5th lowest in the state and Union down to (3.3%) at 7th lowest in the state. Snyder up slightly to (3.9%), rounds out the list of a dozen lowest counties in the state. Northumberland County dipped to 4.7%. Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is 4.3%
