When Mark Lawrence unplugged his headset ‘one last time’ a few weeks ago it was truly bittersweet for all his friends at the Greater Susquehanna Valley Chamber of Commerce. Mark is our friend, and we miss him the very best for a long and prosperous retirement. We knew Mark to always be fair, but also tireless in his pursuit of the ‘true facts,’ and the real story behind the spin. His life lived as a servant leader, generous with his time and talents, and even treasure as he was able, was a worthy example for us all to admire and to emulate. Well done, Mark—we were sorry to see you go and overjoyed that you and April will have decades of rich memories to make.
This morning Aimee Buehner of the Bowen Agency as well as the Chair of your Chamber’s Board and Officers and I will discuss the economic and labor news plus other economic issues.
Completely sweet for us at the Chamber is that we, once again, get to sit across the studio table from one of our longest serving, deeply respected, and possibly the ‘most decorated’ Chamber and Community leaders in our area: Joe McGranaghan.
Recast: Financial Friday is now Money Monday
You're listening to the inaugural program of Money Monday On The Mark. This is going to be a recast, if you will, of the former Financial Friday On The Mark program which ran for 110 consecutive shows. Typically, these programs were heard on the first Friday of each month. In that format, we responded to the breaking national Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Aimee is the most-recent Chamber Board Chair to serve as the co-guest for this show, and the list of past Chairs continues to grow. It currently includes Jim Barabarich, President of MCPS Federal Credit Union; David Herbert, Shamokin Dam Borough leader; John Uehling, founder of Contrast Communications; Sue Greene, Union County Chief Clerk; and Art Thomas, President of Meck-Tech & Diversified Construction.
Money Monday will build on the very best of the former Financial Fridays. The show will be set up in two major sections, with the first segment being called: Mark Those Numbers. A second segment, coming after the 9:30 am news break, will be the Marketplace-On The Mark. You might have guessed, Marketplace will be all about farming, particularly local farming, and its economic impact. Agriculture is our biggest business and largest employer in Pennsylvania, so let’s see what we can do to “hit the mark” when it comes to agriculture, agri-business, and our ag economy.
But first: let’s run the numbers. For the month of July, here’s what we know we know. This first show segment is a review of the economic data that we know for the month. We will review the numbers and make some predictions based on what economists are saying and suggesting. How does what we know help us to predict about this coming week, next month, this calendar quarter, whether we’re going to make money or lose money? Do we keep on hiring, slow down pay increases, start looking for layoffs?
Finally, let’s wrap this segment with a glance at the economic data that we wish we knew but we don't know at that moment. This would be “What we know we don’t know.
Keeping with the long established and mostly successful chamber tradition of following five different nationally known and highly respected economists, the economic data that you hear this morning will include its source, how you might use this information, and what it might all mean. The data that we discuss on Money Monday-On The Mark represents the consensus, or complete non-consensus, opinion of these various economists.
It should be stated and will be repeated often during Money Monday-On The Mark nothing you hear here should be taken as qualified financial advice or in any way a recommendation to buy, sell, save, spend, or whatever when it comes to the listeners’ business or personal financial decisions. As always, find a qualified and licensed financial advisor who you trust and work closely with that person on these decisions.
First Open Phones Question to Our Listeners:
What we would to like to find out via e-mail address at either onthemark@wkok.com or by contacting me directly at rgarrett@gsvcc.org is: What is the economic data that most interests you? What are your current sources of that data?
As callers go to their phones, let’s run the numbers:
In the Employment Situation Report, released back on July 7th, we heard that areas of the US Economy, such as tech and financial services, are groaning even more loudly under the persistent weight of high inflation and ten straight months rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Despite this, the labor market remains strong. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Economic Situation Report for June 2023, was that:
- The national Labor Force is continuing to ease from the early months with an increase of just a little over 200,000 jobs created in June.
- The Hospitality & Leisure Sector continues to boom with the highest number of new jobs being created. Other gaining sectors will be Construction and Education/Health Services. Financial Services and Manufacturing lead the declining sectors. Big Tech shed another 100,000 jobs in June which is largely responsible for why the new jobs created number is not higher.
- Unemployment ticking up to 3.6% after April 2023 report of the lowest ever rate of 3.4%
- Participation Rate held steady at 62.6% since March of this year.
- Wage rate increases continue to slow with an annual rate below 5.0% which is the lowest wage rate increase in more than three years.
- Check out the chart on below…
Second Open Phones Question to Our Listeners:
Shifting to our local economy, here's our second question to our listeners that we would like to har back from on via e-mail address at either onthemark@wkok.com or by contacting me directly at rgarrett@gsvcc.org is: What’s your impression of our local economy? Are we doing well? Are we struggling? Is there a light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to our local labor shortages? Let's get really dangerous here and ask what do you think the Chamber of Commerce should be doing to improve our local economy?
Again, let’s get this party started by ‘Running the Numbers.’ This time our local numbers:
According to the Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry (workstats.dli.pa.gov.dashboards/Pages/Labor-Stats.aspx) county-by-county report, Greater Susquehanna Valley counties returned to their historic low unemployment rates, continuing to be among the lowest in the state as compared to all other counties. Montour and Union dipped back a full half point with Montour at 3.0%, and Union steady at 3.3% with Montour ranking at 4th lowest in the state behind Chester 2.7% and Adams & Montgomery both at 2.9%. Snyder dropped just under a full percentage point to 3.6% (equal with the state/national average) and Northumberland our only county above the state average but dropping to 4.6%. Pennsylvania’s unemployment was down to 3.8%. Our state’s Participation Rate rose to 62.0% with a national Participation Rate of 62.6%.
As reported by WKOK last Friday, Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate declined two-tenths of a percentage point in June to 3.8%, the lowest rate on record (back to January 1976). The Commonwealth’s unemployment rate was one-half of a percentage point below its June 2022 level of 4.3%, and the national rate was unchanged over the year. Pennsylvania’s civilian labor force – the estimated number of residents working or looking for work – was down 4,000 over the month. Resident employment rose by 10,000 over the month and unemployment fell by 13,000.
In June, our state’s total nonfarm jobs were up 7,300 over the month to a new record high of 6,131,900. This is the sixth month in a row that jobs have hit a new all-time high level. Jobs increased from May in six of the 11 industry supersectors with the largest gain in professional & business services (+2,800), which also rose to a record high level. Over the year, total nonfarm jobs are up 154,600 with gains in all supersectors. Education & Health Services Sector (+49,400) had the largest volume over-the-year numerical gain in new jobs.
