Money Matters Monday-On The Mark” 1070AM
for March 4, 2024
By Bob Garrett
“All I know about money matters is that money matters.”
For this morning’s show: Money Matters Monday-On The Mark, given that the March Jobs Report doesn’t come out until later this week we will move directly into the topic of forecasting the future of our economy. We have the unique and unusual opportunity to take a ‘deep dive’ into our nation’s and our state’s economic condition while highlighting local economic issues.
Our in-studio guest will be Dr. Matt Rousu, Dean of the Sigmund Weis School of Business at Susquehanna University; and our call-in guest will be Lauren Bryson, Director of FocusCentralPA a regional industrial development marketing organization.
The show will open with welcoming and sponsor remarks made by Joe McGranaghan, followed by a conversation between Aimee Buehner, Chamber Chair, and top realtor in the valley; our guests; and moderated by Chamber President, Bob Garrett.
Even though we won’t have the March Employment Situation Report until Friday, here are some highlights that we will discuss:
- Last week the number of Americans applying for jobless benefits fell to its lowest level in six weeks, even as more high-profile companies announced layoffs.
- The four-week average of unemployment claims, the least less volatile measure of our economy, fell by 3,500 to 215,250, down from 218,750 the previous week. Weekly unemployment claims are broadly viewed as representative of the number of U.S. layoffs in a given week. They have remained at historically low levels in recent years, despite efforts by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cool the economy.
- The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark borrowing rate 11 times beginning in March of 2022 to bring down the four-decade high inflation rate which took hold after the economy roared back from the COVID-19 recession of 2020. The Fed has left rates unchanged at its last four meetings.
- Many economists, including Dr. Anirban Basu, expected the Fed’s rapid rate hikes to weaken the labor market and potentially tip the country into recession, but didn’t happen, yet. Jobs have remained plentiful, and the economy has held up better than forecast thanks largely to strong consumer spending.
- U.S. employers delivered a stunning burst of hiring to begin 2024, adding nearly 600,000 so far this year as a sign of the economy’s continuing ability to shrug off the highest interest rates in two decades.
- In total, 1.86 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits during the week that ended Feb. 17th, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week.
So, how are we doing
According to the Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry (workstats.dli.pa.gov.dashboards
/Pages/Labor-Stats.aspx) county-by-county report, Greater Susquehanna Valley counties returned to their historic low unemployment rates, continuing to be among the lowest in the state as compared to all other counties. Montour holding steady again this month at 2.9%, and Union ticking up to 3.3% with Montour tied with Chester County at 3rd lowest in the state behind Adams at 2.7%, and with Lancaster and Centre 2.8%. Snyder dropped to 3.5% and Northumberland nudged up slightly to 4.4%. Pennsylvania’s unemployment was down to 3.4%. Our state’s Participation Rate dipped slightly to 61.9% with a national Participation Rate of 62.7%. Both rates are ‘anemic,’ and are not considered to be sufficient to keep our economy growing and strong over the long run.
Questions and Conversation Starters
First off, Economic Development is a term we hear a lot. Your organization is hosting its annual forum addressing this issue on March 13th. Please bring us up to speed here in the Greater Susquehanna Valley on who is doing economic development and how is it getting accomplished? Rather than selling the steak, let’s sell the sizzle, please focus on issues rather than events.
Let’s start with Lauren, On The Mark is an issues focused program. Please tell our listeners why they should attend or even care about the upcoming Industrial Forum. What topics will be discussed during the Forum that would interest our audience members? What’s do you think the speakers will say that’s important about on our local economy?
Matt, any reaction to Lauren’s clarion call related to the upcoming Industrial Forum? What’s your take on our local economy? What would you say to a company looking to expand to or open a new facility here?
Aimee, any thoughts on Lauren’s and Matt’s answers?
Joe Mc, those ‘in the know’ paint a very rosy economic picture of our national, state, and local economies. Do your show callers seem to agree with this assessment? What do you personally think?
Second question: Dr. Anirban Basu will make his 16th visit with us during an Economic Forecast titled “The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly” on March 25th. Over the years, Anirban has built up quite a following, but for today’s show we want to be a bit more critical, more issue focused.
Matt, you probably hear, watch, and read about more economic forecasts in a year than the rest of will do in a lifetime. Heck, you may be known for offering an economic prognostication yourself a time or two. What are the critical issues that you look for in these forecasts? Last year, Dr. Basu got his prediction of a pending recession wrong. What do you make of that? Care to make a prediction of what his prediction will be this year?
Aimee, the proverbial tire (prediction in this case) hits the road for you in the real estate industry. Does the economic forecast, along with the Industrial Forum dovetail with or complement the goals of the Susquehanna Valley Relators and the Chamber of Commerce. Lauren, any issues that you’re looking forward to hearing Dr. Basu tackle?
Joe Mc, any reaction to this conversation?
Third question: The Chamber’s Strategic Plan is built on three key pillars. Engagement, Value, and Retention. The notion is that the Chamber engages with its members on important issues, for example, workforce concerns. There are many other critical issues, including technology and its availability in rural areas, for the Chamber to focus on, as well. Value comes in because the Chamber serves as a clearinghouse for best practices and ideas. Finally, retention centers on the Chamber being the ‘go to’ organization worthy of belonging to, but more importantly, creating an area where you want to keep and grow your business.
So, how are we doing?
Lauren
Matt
Aimee
Joe
