From Where I Sit…
Dr. Anirban Basu’s 17th Annual Economic Forecast Was Spot-On
“…tight labor conditions, sticky inflation, and global uncertainties—stay vigilant,
my valiant business partners.”
Just a week ago, at our 17th Annual Economic Forecast hosted by the Greater Susquehanna Valley Chamber of Commerce, Dr. Anirban Basu, chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Group, delivered a sharp and prescient analysis of this week’s economic indicators. His predictions on consumer confidence, labor market softness, and energy prices have all materialized.
Consumer confidence dips as forecasted
Dr. Basu warned of fragile consumer sentiment amid persistent price pressure and trade uncertainties. True to his forecast, Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Index dropped significantly, reinforcing his caution about the limits on household spending.
Job market weakness emerges
He anticipated a cooling in labor market strength, signaling that job creation would falter as summer wore on. Yesterday’s employment data confirmed his assessment: job growth slowed notably, with employment gains lagging expectations and unemployment inching upward—a clear validation of his labor market concerns.
Energy prices stabilized, yet remain high
Dr. Basu also foresaw moderating energy costs following earlier spikes, predicting that prices would ease but stay elevated relative to historical averages. Indeed, recent reports show that while crude and retail energy prices have retreated from peak levels, they continue to weigh on household budgets—just as he predicted.
Why it matters for the Greater Susquehanna Valley
This region, heavily reliant on both consumer spending and energy-intensive sectors, is particularly sensitive to such shifts. Dr. Basu’s insights give local businesses a valuable roadmap: prudent cost management, sensitivity to consumer sentiment, and strategic energy budgeting will be key in the coming months.
Looking forward
As Basu emphasized, the U.S. economy is not yet in recession territory, but emerging risks—tight labor conditions, sticky inflation, and global uncertainties—demand vigilance.
Learn more
Click here to peruse Dr. Basu’s slides. Please use caution with this information; it’s not investment advice, and is for illustration purposes only dated for the day that they were produced. Things change and so do these slides.
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